Highlights
|
2012 Presidential Primaries: An Experience with Exit PollingWatching the CNN election coverage the night of the Wisconsin primary, I felt more informed, almost like I had inside knowledge on who was going to win, simply because of a small exit poll I had conducted for a journalism class I am taking at Marquette University.
To be clear, the results of this exit poll could in no way scientifically predict the outcome of the statewide election, as the poll was not intended to be scientific. It was merely a way to gain experience, and I gained a new perspective on exit polling. Most people were willing to share who they voted for, but seven of the fifty people I polled were unwilling to do so. I had never thought of how exit pollsters must constantly face rejections. The first refusal was just four people into my exit poll. It was an older gentleman who seemed surprised that I could ask him these questions. He asked, “Can you do that here legally?” The refusal was a confidence shaker. How should I react when they say no? Are people going to be offended that I am asking these questions and unwilling to participate? As it would turn out, 43 of the 50 people polled were willing to share their vote. As I continued polling, the refusals simply became “part of the job.” I think this high participation rate was aided by the fact that I was conducting my exit polling on a college campus, with many young voters more willing to share with me. Of the 50 people I polled, 42 were undergraduate or graduate students at Marquette. The older the person was, the more unwilling they were to tell me the details of their voting. I polled 41 people in the 18-30 age group, and just two refused to participate (approximately 5 percent). On the other hand, three of the seven people who were older than 30 refused to participate (approximately 43 percent). I failed to get the age of two men who I polled. They were among the first that I polled, and I learned later on that it was most effective to ask people their age first so that I least received that information. These two men were elder gentlemen who would definitely be over 30. That would make five of nine people over 30 who would not participate in the exit poll (approximately 56 percent). Even those in the older age group who did answer appeared more hesitant to answer my questions. The people who did not wish to share their vote almost seemed offended that I would even dare to ask them such a question. One younger woman declined to tell me if she had voted in the Republican or in the Democratic primary, repeating multiple times “I am not going to answer that,” as she quickly walked away. This was understandable to me, as many people are very private about who they vote for, not even sharing with their own family (my parents do not tell me who they vote for). As the day went on (I polled from around 2 p.m. until 4:30 p.m.), I grew more and more comfortable asking people who they voted for. Rather than asking point blank “Who did you vote for?” I began asking “Did you vote in one of the primaries? Which one did you vote in? Would you mind sharing with me which candidate you placed your vote for?” While a shift in how you ask the question may not be allowed in a real exit poll, I decided it was okay in this instance because this experience was about the learning curve as much as it was the results. I also made sure to state right off of the bat that I was not associated with any of the candidates, something several people were concerned about. My thinking at first was that if I said I was doing this for a journalism class, I might lose some credibility. But by the time an election judge had me sign in and gave me an “election observer” sticker to wear, this worry was gone. It was important that I identify the purpose of the exit poll and make clear that I was not with a particular candidate. Mitt Romney received the most votes in my exit poll, with Barack Obama receiving more votes in the Democratic primary than other Republican candidate received in the Republican primary. Two of the people I polled were a newly married couple in their twenties. When I asked the wife who she voted for, she turned to her husband and said “Sorry, honey,” and then turned back to me, “But I voted for Mitt.” The husband had voted for Ron Paul. Another gentleman in his twenties explained his vote for me. “We need part unity, and that is not going to happen if I waste my vote on Santorum.” He voted for Romney. |